Politicians

CORONAVIRUS AND THE CASE FOR SELF-IMMUNISATION

 

CORONAVIRUS - THE PANDEMIC

 

Data compiled by Worldometers shows that 91% of people with COVID-19 are experiencing mild symptoms and 9% are in a serious or critical condition. Of the closed cases 93% of those infected fully recovered and 7% died.

It is widely accepted that the true recovery rate of the virus is even greater than 93% because many cases will be so mild they will not have been reported. The data shown here indicates the virus is far deadlier to the older.

 

The vast majority of those under the age of 60 with no underlying health conditions will fall into the 93% who make a full recovery.


This virus is a pandemic due to its transmission and the fact that we have no built immunity to it. Currently preliminary studies estimate the transmission rate to be between 1.5 and 3.5, so for every individual contracting the virus they will infect 1.5 – 3.5 other people. In addition, it takes up to 5 days for symptoms to start to show, this period is notable as it’s most likely when transmission will take place allowing the virus to spread with no recourse, manageable variables or protocols in place.

After 5 days symptoms will develop:


  • 80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home.

  • 4.7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath., septic shock, and multi-organ failure.

  • in about 2% of reported cases the virus is fatal.

  • Risk of death increases the older you are.

  • Relatively few cases are seen among children.

 

2-14 days represents the current official estimated range for the novel coronavirus COVID-19.

  • However, a case with an incubation period of 27 days has been reported by Hubei Province local government on Feb. 22 [12]

  • In addition, a case with an incubation period of 19 days was observed in a JAMA study of 5 cases published on Feb. 21. [13]

  • An outlier of a 24 days incubation period had been for the first time observed in a Feb. 9 study.[11WHO said at the time that this could actually reflect a second exposure rather than a long incubation period, and that it wasn't going to change its recommendations.

  • Period can vary greatly among patients.

  • Mean incubation period observed:
    3.0 days (0 - 24 days range, study based on 1,324 cases)
    5.2 days (4.1 - 7.0 days range, based on 425 cases).

  • Mean incubation period observed in travelers from Wuhan:
    6.4 days (range from 2.1 to 11.1 days).

 

flight vs fight

As a species we react to threats with a fight, freeze or flight response. In regards to this situation we are submitting to the premise of flight, so are we reacting when we should be responding?

 

Self-immunisation

Self-immunisation is the process whereby an individual proactively contracts coronavirus and goes into self-isolaion until he/she fully recovers.

 
Moving People

Neutralises the virus and reduces transmission

once fully recovered the individual will have built the necessary antibodies so they’re no longer susceptable to the virus, they’ve also cut out the 5 day (no symptoms) period which will reduce the current transmission rate. The individual will then be able to help others, return to work, and carry on as normal. For this individual the anxiety/unknown surrounding this virus is over.

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Herd immunity

in order to place this virus in the ‘seasonal flu’ box we need to build herd immunity, so if enough individuals opt into the programme we’ll be able to build it faster in a way that’s controlled, managed and prioritised. This will mean instead of estimating the peak of exposure, we’ll be controlling its contrition.

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At risk groups

this could be structured so the healthy demographics opt in first to immunise themselves and mitigate transmission, while keeping the over 60’s at a safe distance until a certain tipping point is reached.

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Medical resources

if this were adopted as a rolling phase by x amount per age group our medical resources will be better managed i.e. if we know that 13% of a 1,000 person group in cycle 1 will have severe condidtions then the appropriate amount of equipment and staff can be on hand to manage that sub-group. The same infrastructure could then be used for cycle 2 etc.

 
 
Newspapers

Economic impact

managing the pandemic this way will mean that some economic unknowns will become known, if this is done in collaboration with companies and businesses then they’ll know exactly how many of its workforce will be off and for how long, so they can plan appropriately with the right stakeholders for them. This will aid business continuity and its broader implications.

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False alarms

self diagnosing based on seasonal generic symptoms can lead to false alarms which will inflate self isolation needs. Under self-immunisation the participant will be done in conjunction with health professionals so positive testing followed by isolation will be test based to ensure efficiency

Filming Streets

Gig economy

for those who earn under a certain amount whereby statuary pay will be economically dangerous, by managing their isolation period they can take control of when they take time off and the government can better manage economic support as unknown variables (i.e. who’s taking time off, when they’re taking time off, how long they’ll be off for and how much that would cost) would become known variables.

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Reduce Social Anxiety

from an anthropological standpoint if we take control of the fight then we’ll be working together as a group with a shared goal which will reduce the social anxiety that our current approach invokes. As a species social interactions are good for our mental health and well-being, to be clear social distancing is destructive to our overall development from an evolutionary standpoint.

AFTER THOUGHTS

We're currenty running away and hiding from the enemy when, given fact that 93% of us will recover, we should be attacking the enemy head-on.

Self-immunisation is the process of neutralising the enemy by reducing the rate of transmission, while protecting our NHS, vulnerable population and mitigating economical impact.

In conclusion, an invisible enemy, needs an indivisable nation to invoke its most innovative miltant response. 

It's time for a new type of soldier.

 

Also Read

Header Subtitle

Published March 20th 2020

Could this be the perfect opportunity to combat COVID-19? We build on self-immunisation and how it could be the game-changer we desperately need.

April 02nd 2020

We re-evaluate the values of Herd Immunity and imagine the impact it could have with the right leadership and strategy

The Aftertimes

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